How Aging Populations Shaped the Rise of Robots
Study | New Stardom
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Figure 14 from the IMF G20 Background Note shows a strong correlation between demographic aging and robot adoption, with countries such as Korea, Germany, and Singapore recording higher automation where workforces are older. Source: International Monetary Fund, G20 Background Note on Aging and Migration (July 2025).
In its July 2025 background note to the G20, the International Monetary Fund examined the economic effects of aging and migration, with much of the analysis focused on falling fertility, rising dependency ratios, and the role of labor mobility. Yet a closer look at the report reveals a striking detail: differences in demographic aging can explain roughly 35 percent of the variation in robot adoption across OECD countries, suggesting that automation has been driven as much by demographic necessity as by technological progress.
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New Stardom’s review of the data highlights that nations such as Japan, Germany, and Korea, which have among the steepest increases in old-age dependency, also registered the fastest uptake of robotics over the past three decades. Countries with younger workforces or steady inflows of migrants, such as the United States, adopted robots at a slower pace, underscoring the role of labor supply pressures in shaping automation trends.
The IMF note does not frame this as a global surge in robotics but the figures point to a consistent pattern in which economies with shrinking working-age populations have invested in automation to sustain productivity. In practice this meant that productivity in aging economies did not fall as steeply as many forecasts had suggested, because capital deepening through automation offset part of the demographic drag.
Evidence from the OECD’s report Enhancing Productivity and Growth in an Ageing Society shows the same relationship, with faster-aging countries recording proportionately higher levels of robot installations, particularly in manufacturing. Academic studies by Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo reinforce this conclusion and find that demographic change can explain up to half of the variation in robot use across countries and even within U.S. metropolitan areas.
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The underreported link between demographics and automation matters for future policy. The IMF notes that widespread adoption of artificial intelligence could play a similar role in the decades ahead, enabling older workers to remain employed longer and potentially easing some of the pressures created by declining labor forces. But the benefits are expected to be uneven, with advanced economies better equipped to integrate AI than emerging and developing ones.
Population aging is not only a challenge for growth but also a structural driver of how and why technologies are adopted.
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